Alizée America Forum - Mathematical Formula on the future of Alizée's marriage

Quote:

Originally Posted by ALS (Post 222510)

I ran across this story on famous people and their chances of a doomed marriage and thought it would be a fun discussion. Being that we have been debating on whether Alizée and Jeremy are together, may be together, or are splitsville as we speak, here was a story that popped up today and I thought I would pass it on since the whole Alizée and Matt discussion is pretty much over.

Here is the formula that predicts how long a marriage may last between two famous celebrities who decide to get married. The story from the New York Times is linked below it. Get your Calculators out and start punching numbers. :13:

http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7058/6...9b13591c_z.jpg

Science/a-refined-formula-to-predict-doom-in-celebrity-marriages

Like I have said before, there is a mathematical formula to everything ... formula's are models and if used properly can tell one whatever they need to know.

Edit:

Oh wow this does not look good for them. Assuming all my arithmetic is correct I get 1.53% chance they are still together. What really limits their chances in this algorithm is the variable D which is number of months they have known each other before marriage. If D was higher the percentage would go up exponentially.
Here are the numbers I used
 P = 0
Ab = 27.42 years approx.
Ag = 27.58 years approx.
Gb = .217 million
Gg = 15.6 million
S = 1

6 November 2003 marriage date
25th March 2003 meeting date
D = 7.29 months (assuming all months have 31 days)

6 November 2003 marriage date
14 March 2012 today’s date
T = 8.36 years
2{(30-1)/5}*[(10*27.42+10*27.58)/{(27.42-27.58)^2 + 100}]*[{75(10+.217)}/{(.217+15.6)*(10+15.6)}]^.5 * {7.29/(7.29+2)}^(2*8.36)
58/5 * 5.50 * 1.38 * .0174 = 1.53% for 8.36 years