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Old 10-20-2014, 02:42 AM
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The following is spreadsheet data and a few charts tracking Alizée's and Tal's growth in popularity since the start of DALS.

All charts and spread sheets moved here from Post 161.

Here is the new version. It is now in segments to improve readability. Each segment has to be the same size, which is why I have to include some blank worksheet. Redone completely on 3/1/2015.





















...

The Deltas show the "per day" changes.
These numbers are from Ray4AJ's listing in post #1 above.

I should probably explain what the light and dark yellow coding mean.
I look at each artist's "pre-DALS" trend. IF, on a particular day, they significantly exceed THEIR Pre-DALS trend, I highlight the box in light yellow.
IF, on a particular day, they very significantly exceed THEIR Pre-DALS trend, I highlight the box in bright yellow.

Looking at the spreadsheet above, you can easily see the effect of DALS on each artist's daily totals.
- Tal, saw a significant bump in her daily numbers (above what she was seeing before DALS) only around the time she was voted off.
- Alizée, on the other hand, received a huge boost almost immediately. And, as you can see by all the bright yellow in her Facebook list, she continues to benefit significantly.


Jan. 29th - Tal is adding people to Facebook at approximately three times the rate of Alizée. However, both are adding people at historic highs. Also, their counts took off after Jan. 10th. Does anybody know what happened then to trigger this?
March 4th - Look at Alizée's Facebook likes and Talking About. They dropped off Right after the last DALS. Notice how the bright yellow has gone to light yellow. She seems to have zero staying power. She is either out there or else people stop signing on.
March 21st - Look at Alizée's "Talking About." Looks like Blonde has people talking about her again. Also, although I flagged Alizée's Blonde rumor for the 14th, it was clearly out there on March 10th somewhere in a big way. Tal's Facebook has clearly been cooling for the last couple of weeks.

April 19th, 2014 - General Analysis (Note: Alizée had a banner week after she won DALS. I will not comment on this in the below as I am more looking at trends)
Instagram -Alizée's "Baseline" (measured for the months prior to DALS) is about 70 adds a day. This went up to about 700 per day at the peak of DALS. It started to taper down after DALS, but was still around 200 per day during the DALS Tour. After the tour, it dropped to approximately 70 per day again (in other words - back to Baseline). With the recent activity, she jumped briefly into the 150-200 range. This shows that her appearances do have at least some effect. Note: Ignore the red numbers, that is independent of her activity.
Twitter - Alizée's "Baseline" (measured for the months prior to DALS), as best as I can determine, was approximately double that of Instagram, or about 150 adds a day. This went up to about 1,000 per day at the peak of DALS. It started to taper down after DALS, but was still around 300 per day at the beginning of the DALS Tour - tapering to 200 per day by the end. After the tour, it dropped to approximately 150 per day again (in other words - back to Baseline). The recent activity has resulted in NO change to her numbers.
Facebook - Alizée's "Baseline" (measured at the earliest point prior to DALS that we have) was approximately 250 adds a day. This went up to over 2,000 per day at the peak of DALS. She maintained a solid 1,500 per day after DALS and went back to 2.000 per day during the DALS Tour. Immediately after the tour, it dropped rapidly, until it was almost back to baseline. Any exposure, especially a public appearance, causes her number to jump, with the adds spreading both before and after the event. This is the number that shows if she is reaching people or not. People want to see her.
Now, which of these three is the best indicator of those who will actually buy albums? At present, I do not know. It will be interesting to see what the Blonde video release does to these numbers.
Facebook - People Talking About - (This is a running 7-day count of "activity" related to Alizée's Facebook page. As such, it is a good indicator of whether people are interested in her at the moment.) What is interesting to me is how much of the time her actual counts run close to Tal's. It is tough to "Baseline" Alizée's PTA values, however, a simple percentage of her Talking about numbers over her total Facebook likes (I'll call this "the Ratio") gives a basic picture of the involvement of her fan base at any given moment. This ratio peaked at close to 11% right after her DALS win. It ran at 6-8% both during most of DALS as well as most of the DALS Tour. It dropped to a low of less than 1% just prior to the Blonde rumor. It is currently at 3.1%.
If I had one suggestion, it would be for her to try to keep this number above 3%, at least during any period that she is not in total hibernation. If it slips below 3% then it is an indicator to her that she is neglecting her fan base.


June 6th - I have never seen her Talked About numbers so low since we started this. This is probably the worst week she has had since Ray started recording the numbers. Her "Ratio" is down to 0.6% - one fifth of where it needs to be. Whatever she is doing - It is NOT working!

June 28th - Her Talked About numbers are back above the minimum needed again - 3% or more. Now, if she can just keep them up there....

August 5th - I have never seen her Talked About numbers so low since we started this. This is the worst week she has had since Ray started recording the numbers. Her "Ratio" is down to 0.3% - one tenth of where it needs to be. Just a reminder that she is very much "out of sight, out of mind" for much of her fan base!


September 14th - I have added a new ratio - the Facebook/Instagram ratio. I spotted an interesting trend with these two over time, so I decided to actually add the ratio to the chart. It is located directly to the left of the weekly Facebook total. It shows the ratio of new Facebook adds for the week to the number of Instagram adds for the week.
What is interesting about this ratio is that currently she is adding more Instagram followers per week than she is adding Facebook followers.
Back in the DALS4 days, it was running on average 10:1. It peaked at 30:1 around the time she won (she was adding 30 new Facebook followers to every one Instagram follower she was adding).
As you can see in the above chart, this is now down to 0.7 : 1.
Instagram jumped up suddenly in July, and is now averaging about 2,000 new adds per week.
Facebook, which peaked at over 14,000 adds per week, is now down around 1,400 per week.
Interesting change, don't you think?




The following image is the entire spreadsheet. Click on the image to follow the link Then click on the magnifying glass icon in the bottom right a couple of times to see it at full resolution:






Charts and Graphs

Full History - September 2013- to December 2015





DALS 2015 Tour





Album release through end of Blonde Tour :-(








The next chart is simply a compressed version of the above chart (version 10/19/2014), and allows you to see the changes in slope of the graph lines a little easier.
For example, you can see that Alizée's Instagram lie was flat, and is now turning upwards.




This next one covered the time period through the first weeks of the release of Album 6.





This one covers from just after the end of DALS to mid-March, shortly after the end of the DALS Tour.


Notice how Alizée's lines seem to be flattening, especially AFTER the end of the DALS tour.
Also, you can see that people are talking about her again.

This Chart is a compressed version of the one above thru March 4th.



Here, you can see very clearly how Tal is taking off and Alizée's lines seem to be flattening.
You can see this clearly in the Green line showing Alizée's Facebook likes. The last week is clearly flatter.
Also, what did Tal do in December to set off her rocket launch?

Another interesting item to note. Both their Instagram lines are flattening. Could this possibly indicate that Instagram is getting old in general? Perhaps people are starting to get bored of it? Maybe people are starting to decide that they want more of a full Facebook experience (more of a story with the picture)? Just food for thought.

Older version of the chart - Just shows approximate time period of the DALS Tour.




Older Chart - From the beginning through the end of 2013.






Older Chart - Showing baselines for Alizée and Tal for Facebook and Twitter at start of DALS.



If you have a problem seeing a chart clearly, click on the image to follow the link. Then click on the magnifying glass icon in the bottom right a couple of times to see it at full resolution:
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Last edited by Rev; 09-03-2015 at 12:45 AM.. Reason: Moved from post 161 - Updated chart as of 9/3 and spreadsheet as of 9/03/2015
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