Your logic makes sense. She would likely try to aim for the first show or have to skip it entirely (either because her schedule doesn't permit, or because they would not want her JUST for the first show).
Last year she had intended to attend LE and then changed her mind. I think (guess) she changed her mind because she was VERY popular with the DALS group. I am guessing the organizers significantly sweetened the pot for those 2 shows, and added some pressure, basically making it all but impossible for her to say no.
This year, as you said, G and her can plan around it a bit better so who knows. There is at least a chance.
